Visual guide to Bayesian reasoning and updating beliefs with evidence. Formula $$ P(H|E) = \frac{P(E|H) \cdot P(H)}{P(E)} $$ $P(H|E)$: Posterior (probability of hypothesis given evidence) $P(E|H)$: Likelihood (probability of evidence given hypothesis) $P(H)$: Prior (initial probability of hypothesis) $P(E)$: Marginal …